Emergency humanitarian conditions in the south

©  Liban A. Warsame/IRIN Conflict could create a severe humanitarian crisis.

NAIROBI, 16 Aug 2006 (IRIN) – Any increase in conflict could create a severe humanitarian crisis in Somalia, according to a United Nations agency.

In a statement released in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi on Tuesday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSAU) warned that double the 1.8 million people currently in need of urgent assistance were at risk.

“If there is an escalation in the political crisis which results in widespread conflict and the disruption of inter-regional trade,” says Cindy Holleman, UN FAO Technical Coordinator to the FSAU, “the implications for the humanitarian situation will be severe. In such a scenario, the total number of people facing humanitarian crisis could double,” she added.

The FSAU, Famine Early Warnings Net Somalia and 40 agencies conducted an assessment of the post-Gu seasonal rains and concluded that the cereal harvest in the south is about 71 percent of the post-war average (PWA), making this the third consecutive season of below-normal production. Furthermore, Lower and Middle Juba and Hiran experienced almost complete crop failure – less than 30 percent of PWA.

“FSAU and FEWS Net Somalia, therefore, warn that if there is widespread conflict in the coming months there is a moderate risk of humanitarian emergency of significantly increased scale and magnitude for the whole of central and southern Somalia,” the FSAU said.

Despite improvements, emergency humanitarian conditions persist in southern Somalia and will continue at least until the end of the year, said the agency. An estimated 1.8 million people were in need of urgent humanitarian assistance and livelihood support at least until the end of December 2006, the agency said.

“Of this total, an estimated 1.4 million people in north, central and southern Somalia continue to face conditions of humanitarian emergency or acute food and livelihood crisis,” it added.

Malnutrition rates remained high in many areas, with Global Acute Malnutrition rates exceeding 20 percent in some areas.

Prices of staple foods are expected to remain high in most of southern and central Somalia due to crop failures and low cereal stocks, according to FSAU. Commodity prices had risen due to insecurity and increased fuel prices, resulting in reduced food access by poor households, it added.

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Source: IRIN, Aug 16, 2006