A government chasing a mirage!

By: A.R. Hassan

As we all know, the transitional federal government of Somalia (TFG); was originally conceived and orchestrated outside its homeland Somalia as dictated by circumstances at that time. The international community so generously invested and assisted in the formation of this administration in October 2004 in Nairobi, Kenya.

During the almost two year conference in Kenya, tremendous amount of money and energy were directed towards winning seats rather than reconciliation among opposing sides. Despite the long period, the presence of world political actors and the United Nations organs; the 14^th Somali peace conference has sadly produced a unilateral warlord government, accommodating one side only.

It should be remembered that no two antagonising sides were fully reconciled during the course of the supposed peace meeting in Kenya. A government was simply formed by IGAD and parachuted onto Somalia without the necessary base for it to function. Potential stakeholders were left in the cold in a frenzy attempt to quench the ambitions of some IGAD members with sinister intentions in Somalia.

Thus, born a government without people, without capital and without a country to rule. Given this precarious situation and messy circumstance; all eyes were focused on Abdullahi Yusuf’s new administration and how it was going to cope with the jig-saw puzzle! The impossible political riddle given to him by his patrons in Adis Ababa. The difficult task to serve for two masters and hostile ones at that.

Some initially predicted optimistically that Col: yusuf, with considerable support in the Puntland autonomous region; a military rarity with 30 years of experience in the defunct Somali national army and another 30 years as a dissident militant against the Barre dictatorship; can find a way out by using a brute force. A force strong enough to intimidate his many opponents who were marginalised  during the conference. Those who were neither consulted nor considered. The non-warlord elements of Somali political spectrum.

On the other hand, many hoped that the beleaguered president will pursue a reconciliatory path and bring the fragmented Somali people together through diplomacy and power sharing. The world donors have particularly anticipated that Col. Yusuf, once in office will chart out a genuine and coherent reconciliation program to correct the grave errors in the first phase.

But none of these is happening! The government is simply sitting in Baidao counting its days and consuming foreign aid. It lacks the integrity and will to come to realty.  It lacks the guts and determination to negotiate with its rival dominant Islamic courts which rule the majority of the South, including the capital city. Instead of that, the TFG is chasing a mirage by heavily relying on foreign support and peace keeping army that may never come during its term in office.  IGAD peace mission is an illusion which is hard to achieve and depend on.

Admittedly, the government enjoys the international support and recognition which is critical to its existence, but that alone does not guarantee the legitimacy and recognition it so direly needs. The popular support and moral authority of its people must be obtained in one way or another. Dependency on foreign powers, no matter how great, is insufficient.

A case in point is the recent unilateral pronouncement of a ghost administration in Baidoa by prime minister Ghedi; again excluding deadly potential actors like the supreme united courts at his door steps. Ghedi has simply listed the names of ministers who represent nobody except Ethiopia, at a time when he should have been attending the long awaited Khartum peace initiative aimed at forming un inclusive administration.

To ignore the courts and form an exile government is tantamount an intransigency which could backfire. It means dancing with the wind and doing nothing. Needless to say, that the courts have achieved in four months what the warlords could not achieve in 16 long years—taming Mogadishu, a task even the mighty United Nations mission in Somalia (UNOSOM 1992-5) had failed to succeed. The courts have already disarmed the demons who destroyed their country and now bracing to disarm the general public peacefully. This is a feat. A stunning victory For Somalia as whole and for the horn region as well. It opens a new window of opportunity for all parts concerned.

Why then the government is not committed to deal with the courts? Why not welcome the new change and chance for peace? Who has legitimacy, the courts with vast territory or the exile government with fragile international backing? What happens if the courts form their own unilateral administration or host a new peace conference in Mogadishu, in retaliation to the Baidoa based group? Incomprehensive! The government must come back to sanity and serve its people.